Closings: According to Garden State MLS, a total of 3,904 residential properties closed in Morris County during 2011, down 7% from 2010… far fewer than the 6,600+ units that closed in the mid 2000s. Randolph’s numbers were up 6% from 2010 to 2011, with a total of 202 closed homes last year.

Contracts – A Hopeful Look! Contract signings are a leading indicator of the state of the current market since they show the willingness (or lack of) of buyers to make a commitment to purchase a property. As the numbers below indicate, contract activity in Randolph was up for the past four months, and for five of the past six months. National data shows that pending home sales are at a 19 month high.

PRICES:  Average selling prices fell 4.8% in Morris County, and 12.9% in Randolph, bringing the average prices of the areas to $468,600 and $472,900, respectively.

Randolph’s larger decline in average price was partially due to the softening of market for the highest end of the market in Randolph … 2010 saw 8 homes sell for over $1 million, while the highest price paid last year was $938,000 – the first time since 2000 that a home did not sell for over $1 million in Randolph. The recovery in activity shown in the contract data on the previous page, combined with a decline in inventory points to a year that will have prices that are either the same as, or slightly higher than 2011.

OUTLOOK FOR 2012… Although it’s just the start of the year, we welcome the news that contract signings have increased in both Randolph and Morris County. January saw the highest level of signed contracts since January, 2008 in Randolph, and the highest since 2007 in Morris County. Sales increases were due to record low mortgage rates and lower prices, combined with the warm January that we’re all enjoying.

The improving market is part of what is hopefully an improving economy… including lower unemployment rates, and a record year for auto sales – the other big ticket item that economists use to measure the economy. It seems we may be emerging from the worst of the economic downturn.

What does this mean to you? If you’re like most people, your home is your most valuable asset. If you would like to discuss the real estate market and how these numbers relate to you and your home, feel free to call or email. I’d be glad to spend some time chatting about this… regardless of whether you are ready to move.  Every home is different, and every financial situation is unique.

As always, if you would like information about anywhere you might want to move in the future or if a family member has a real estate need, feel free to call. I have access to top Realtors in New Jersey, across the country and around the world. I can be reached at 862.432.2771 or by email: andrew@randolphnjhomes.com.

Scan here using a smartphone QR Code Reader and see where it leads!

The rapid change from desktop PC to laptop and now to smart phones and tablets is revolutionizing real estate once again… just over a year from my first blog entry, where I discussed  how back in the 1990′s,  I showed the Internet to a seller for the first time, eventually getting the listing on her house.  I concluded then, as I would today, that face-to-face communication would never be replaced by technology.

- According to PC Magazine, sales of smart phones (iPhone, Android and Blackberry) will outpace computer sales this year.

- Smart Online’s recent overview says ”The current base of Smartphone owners in the US is broken down into 37% with an Android device, 27% with an iPhone, 22% with a Blackberry, and 10% with a Windows phone.”

Seeing the changes in technology and the need to deliver more information to clients, I have re-launched www.randolphnjhomes.com, with new search capabilities and enhanced information about the area and have made the site available via its own QR (Quick Response) Code. (see box in the corner of this post.).

AS THIS MAP OF RANDOLPHS across the US shows, we are not alone… at least those of us who call Randolph home are not!

Worth Noting:

• The average is based on a far smaller number of closings than in the height of the real estate market… Morris County overall sales are down from over 6,642 in 2004 to 4,254 sales this year – an improvement from the 3,906 total in 2008, but still down considerably.  Because of the reduced number of sales, used in the average, each sale… for better or worse… carries more weight. Randolph follows a similar pattern; down from 375 to 190 last year. (See charts below).

• Sales of homes over $1 million were up considerably.  Morris County saw a 37.5% boost to a total of 225 homes (still off the 439 sold in 2007).  Randolph was up from 3 to 8 homes. Although this does not seem like a big jump, it has nearly tripled from 2009 to last year.

• The increase in $1 million+ homes has a larger weight in the average due to the smaller number of overall home sales.

CLICK ON GRAPHS TO ENLARGE:



The Numbers Please…

• According to Garden State Multiple Listing data, the average price of a home sold in Morris County stood at $493,200 last year, an increase of 5.2% over calendar year 2009.

• Randolph saw a similar trend with a 2010 average of $543,300, up 6.5% from the previous year.

Looking Forward
The single largest factor in the recovery of the real estate market, and the economy as a whole is consumer confidence, which is returning slowly. Hopefully unemployment will improve, enabling people to be willing and able to move in the coming year and beyond.

As I said at beginning of this entry… these are just averages If you have questions about your specific home or a real estate market nearby or anywhere across the country, feel free to contact me directly at 862.432.2771 or at andrew.mensch@cbmoves.com.

I was a student at Northeastern University in Boston and had a 12:30 appointment with my advisor on January 28, 1986. The television was on in the background as I got ready… yet another shuttle launch was being shown… Shuttle launches had become so routine that people barely paid attention.

The shuttle lifted off just after 11:35, in an attempt, as President Reagan called it that evening, “to bringing seven astronauts “to touch the face of God.” I turned off the TV just as the shuttle cleared the launch pad so I could catch the T from Allston to the Northeastern to get to my meeting.

As I sat down with my advisor, a guy who liked to tell jokes, he said “did you hear about the space shuttle?”

“No,” I answered with a smile, expecting one of his one-liners. What followed was no laughing matter.

As news of the explosion spread across the campus, a grey sadness filled the air. Many Northeastern students lived close by… some from Concord, New Hampshire, the home of Christa McAuliffe, the teacher who was among the astronauts who died that day. A few of my classmates who had her as a teacher were heartbroken to lose such a special person. Although classes met that afternoon, all education stopped as stunned professors and students shared their thoughts and grief.

We’ve seen events like this before…. and we will see them again. I remember my parents telling me in detail about how they learned of the shooting of President Kennedy. The shuttle crash was the first of these epic events in my lifetime… followed years later as I watched the events of September 11, 2001 unfold. Unfortunately, now I have my own stories to tell.

Technology brings us ever-closer to national events. Think of how the public learned of the assassination of President Lincoln versus the live accounts of the shooting of President Kennedy on radio and the relatively new medium of television…. How cell phones changed the way we shared news of 9/11, and how Twitter and Facebook have brought us instantly into the breaking news of the shooting in Arizona just a few weeks ago.

Although the method of delivery of news changes almost daily… the feeling of loss that comes with the news of a national tragedy will always be the same.

Absorption rates are calculated from the total current inventory and the number of monthly contracts resulting in the average months it takes to sell or absorb the current inventory of homes. Of course, some homes will sell quickly, and some may not sell at all. The absorption rates provide a measure of the temperature of the market.

As of this writing, New Jersey’s statewide absorption rate stands at 14.9 months, up from 12 months at this time last year.  Morris County and Randolph’s rates are 11.8 and 11.7 respectively, better than New Jersey overall. Click on the graph below to enlarge to see details.

New Jersey Absorption Rate

The increase in absorption rates in late 2008 and 2009 follows the collapse financial markets at the end of 2008 and also illustrates the steadying effect of the tax incentives offered by the Federal government as the rate fell through April of last year.

As contracts decreased following the expiration of the Home Buyer Tax Credit, absorption rate rose again. The increase in contracts at the end of last year brought the rate down slightly from last fall.

As a comparison, absorption rates the height of the real estate market were between 4 and 5 months, which is considered by real estate analysts to be a healthy market.

Beating the Odds:
Changes in the absorption rate may not put a seller at the end of a line where they wait for 10 months until their turn comes to sell their house. Aggressive pricing, market exposure follow-up puts sellers at the front of the line…where homes sell quickly at or near the asking price. With 20+ years of experience in real estate and marketing, I can make that happen for you.

Feel free to contact me with any questions at andrew.mensch@cbmoves.com or call me directly at 862.432.2771.

Following the format of last years’ three part examination of the real estate market, I will share measurement data in separate blog entries.  Click here to read my review of contracts from last year, or continue below to see the latest news…

The past year in real estate was a play in two acts. The first act took place between January and April while the extended and expanded the Home Buyer Tax Credits were still in effect. The second act took place following the April 30^th deadline.

Looking Back – Act I
As shown in the chart below, contracts in Morris County and Randolph were considerably higher while the Buyer Tax Credits were available during the first four months of the year.
In fact, contracts for 2010 were at their highest point since 2007, before the current financial crisis began.

Looking Back – Act II
As spring came into full bloom, reluctance by many to continue tax incentives brought an end to these programs which had been in place for more than two years. The real estate market had been on life-support… with good reason; now came the time to let the market react freely.

For the first few months without incentives, many buyers thought that since they “lost the $8,000” (that they never had), they would make lower offers and move more slowly than in the first part of the year. Mortgage rates stayed around 4.5-4.75% for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage and were falling slowly. The lack of urgency was highlighted by unemployment rates that stood near 10% as the year ended.

Although a slowing of the market was expected, it was more dramatic than many thought it would be. Compare the data above for contracts before the end of the tax incentives with those below that measure activity after the April 30 expiration date.

Looking Forward
Several factors have shown buyers that the market may be improving a bit, and that now is the time to buy; including a slight increase in mortgage rates, the extension of the Bush Tax Credits and a slight dip in the unemployment numbers.

When separated from the May – December data, the statistics below illustrate that we may see a slight improvement as 2011 begins.  We’re not back to 2006 by a long shot, but any indicators that show some growth are encouraging:

I will give a more detailed analysis for 2011 following the entries for the review of 2010… so stay tuned.

As always, feel free to contact me with any questions at andrew.mensch@cbmoves.com or call me directly at 862.432.2771.

This nationwide survey, conducted by Remodeling Magazine, is also broken down by region and the Mid Atlantic States (New Jersey, New York & Pennsylvania in this survey). The top three national returns on investment (ROI) hold true closer to home as well.  The top three are:

Keep in mind that this is just an average, and that prices for all home improvement items the specific ROI may vary as well.  The good news is that unless an entry or garage door is in disrepair, a total replacement may not be necessary.
The least expensive way to spruce up your house is to take a look at what a buyer sees first. Here are a few of my low cost tips:

The Path to the Door: Make sure this area is clean and clear in all seasons. This means no weeds or moss in the summer, no leaves in the fall and no snow in the winter. This will not only make the house look better, but may prevent potential issues that can arise from customer or Realtor injuries on your property.

Entry Door/Garage Door: If a replacement door is not necessary or in your budget, wash down the door to remove cob webs and dust… paint or refinish the door and spend a little money to replace old dull or pitted hardware with new knobs that sparkle. As silly as this sounds, make sure your doorbell works. A broken doorbell may raise questions… legitimate or not… about what other issues may be lurking inside.

Mailbox: Show buyers that your home is in top shape with a freshly painted mailbox post and a mailbox that’s free of rust. Basic mailboxes are under $50, and a fresh coat of paint makes a world of difference.

Numbers: Realtors and buyers can’t find your house if the street number is hidden. While you’re polishing the entry area, add a bright, clean number to your entry way or mailbox if your house isn’t clearly marked.  Seal the Driveway: Don’t scare buyers away by making their first thought that they’d have to replace the drive way. Fix cracks and holes and seal the driveway to make it look sharp.

Trim the Bushes: Overgrown bushes makes a house look small from outside and dark from inside. Use your own hedge trimmer or hire someone for a one-time visit if you cut your own lawn.

These six items go a long way to making the first impression a good one, and good first impressions are important in this competitive real estate market. If you need professional assistance with any of these tasks, just call me. I have a long list of qualified vendors who can handle any or all of these tasks for you. I can be reached at 862.432.2771 or andrew.mensch@cbmoves.com.

Currently held without bail on an inquiry into sexual misconduct charges, the group’s leader has threatened to release more sensitive documents regarding our military assets, BP and the Gulf oil spill and Bank of America. Our government should learn a good lesson about the protection (or lack of protection) of sensitive documents. I am all for disclosure and transparency, but some things should remain secret.  The idea that one person… or one group can hold information that is so potentially damaging to our entire country is frightening and shows the immense power of the web.

Last week, many Facebook users got a message to change their profile pictures to cartoons from their childhood in order to fight child abuse. Later reports that this movement was started by a group who wanted to harm children was proven false according to snopes.com.

Regardless, many who frequent Facebook took the bait and changed their profile pictures (including me, it seemed harmless).

Changing a picture to Charlie Brown or Astro from the Jetsons is harmless… leaks of sensitive government data is not.

Both incidents clearly show the power of the the Internet… and how it can help or harm hundreds if not millions of people.

Whether you’re looking at real estate data, restaurant reviews or critical looks at government documents, the same rule applies to Internet information as to data found in print or on TV.

Take a lesson from Desk Sargent Phil Esterhaus  from the 80s police show “Hill Street Blues,” who ended his briefings with the phrase “Let’s be careful out there.”

This survey measures consumer’s feelings about the current economy, as well as feelings about the outlook for the future.  According to CNN Money, the newest report shows several encouraging signs. Specifics from the CNN report:

• Though consumers’ assessment of the current state of the economy and job market only rose slightly from the prior month, their outlook for the next few months improved to the highest level since May.

• The report showed that the expectations component jumped to 74.2 from 67.5 in October, while the present situation measure rose to 24 from 23.5.

• The percentage of Americans expecting business conditions to pick up over the next several months increased to 16.7% from 15.8% last month, and fewer expected circumstances to worsen.

• Consumers were also more positive about job prospects, with 15.5% expecting more jobs in the months ahead, up from 14.5%. And over 10% are anticipating a boost in their incomes, according to the report.

• Shepherdson expects the consumer outlook for the economy to continue to improve next month.”Confidence still remains weak by historic standards, but it is at least now heading in the right direction again,” he said.

As I’ve said many times before on THE REAL [estate] MENSCH blog, the real estate market cannot improve without a rise in consumer confidence, since consumers make large purchase decisions based not only on their current assets, but also the feeling that their personal wealth, and the health of the economy in general will be as good or better tomorrow than it is today.

Real estate is my passion… if you’d like to discuss the real estate market in general, or if you have a specific real estate need, feel free to contact me. I can be reached at 862.432.2771,  andrew@randolphnjhomes.com or andrew.mensch@cbmoves.com.